Forecast from the Chair of Epidemiology: Spain Will Win the World Cup! Probably.
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Tomorrow, the 2026 FIFA World Cup kicks off in Canada, Mexico, and the United States, marking the start of the world's biggest football tournament. For the first time, 48 nations will compete to determine the new world champion. Football fans across the globe are eagerly awaiting the opening match and asking the big question: Who will lift the trophy? Spain, England, or France? Can Germany surprise the world? Or will another nation produce a stunning upset?
According to an international team of researchers led by Dr. Gunther Schauberger (Chair of Epidemiology, headed by Prof. Dr. Stefanie Klug), together with colleagues from the Universities of Innsbruck and Dortmund and Molde University College, Spain has the best chances of winning the title. Using a statistical forecasting model that combines data analysis, bookmaker odds, and modern machine-learning techniques, the team estimates Spain's probability of becoming world champion at 14.5 percent.
"The term forecast should be used with caution in this context. Although Spain is our favorite, our prediction also implies that there is more than an 85 percent probability that the team will not become world champion," Schauberger explains.
The forecast combines several statistical approaches and is based on four key sources of information and data:
Ability estimates derived from international matches played over the past eight years
Odds from 24 international bookmakers
Player performance data at club level
Player market values as well as additional team- and country-specific covariates, such as FIFA and Elo rankings or economic indicators
The model was developed and trained using the results of major international tournaments – FIFA World Cups and UEFA European Championships – between 2006 and 2024. It was then used to estimate the expected number of goals for every possible match between the 48 participating teams. Based on these estimates, probabilities for wins, draws, and losses were calculated.
A total of 100,000 simulations of the entire tournament were then conducted, taking into account all group-stage and knockout matches as well as official FIFA regulations. These simulations ultimately provide winning probabilities for all participating teams. Spain leads the ranking with a probability of 14.5 percent, followed by England and France with 12.4 percent each, and Germany with 11.2 percent.
Particularly noteworthy is the assessment of the German national team. While many international bookmakers rank Germany only seventh among the tournament favorites, the statistical model places the team fourth, directly behind the three leading contenders. In contrast, Brazil and Argentina perform slightly worse in the simulations than in the forecasts of many bookmakers. One possible explanation could be Germany's high squad market value and the large number of victories—albeit often narrow ones—in the matches leading up to the World Cup.
Compared with previous World Cups, the relatively low winning probabilities of the favorites also highlight the many uncertainties inherent in such a tournament. The expansion to 48 teams and the introduction of an additional knockout round significantly increase the number of possible tournament scenarios. The allocation of the best third-placed teams alone results in several hundred different pathways through the knockout stage.
"The results demonstrate how competitive the world's top football nations currently are. At the same time, they make me optimistic that we will witness a high-quality and exciting tournament in which the German team also has a realistic chance of progressing deep into the competition," concludes Prof. Dr. Stefanie Klug, Chair of Epidemiology.
A look at forecasts from previous tournaments also illustrates the limitations of statistical predictions. Ahead of UEFA EURO 2024 in Germany, France was considered the favorite with a title probability of 19.2 percent. However, Spain ultimately secured the trophy by defeating England in the final. Similarly, before the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar, Brazil topped the forecasts with a winning probability of around 15 percent. In the end, Argentina defeated France in the final and became world champion.
In addition to Dr. Schauberger, the study was conducted by Prof. Dr. Andreas Groll, Agamyrat Hanekov, Prof. Dr. Lars Magnus Hvattum, Dr. Rouven Michels, Elina Sukhanova, Sebastian Witte, and Prof. Dr. Achim Zeileis. Using the developed hybrid model, the international research consortium generates probabilistic forecasts for matches at the 2026 FIFA World Cup and investigates possible tournament trajectories using advanced machine-learning methods.
To the homepage of the Chair of Epidemiology
Complete Forecast Including Interactive Graphics
Contact
Prof. Dr. Stefanie Klug
Chair of Epidemiology
Am Olympiacampus 11
80809 Munich, Germany
Phone: +49 89 289 24950
E-mail: sekretariat.klug.epidemiologie(at)mh.tum.de
Dr. Gunther Schauberger
Chair of Epidemiology
Am Olympiacampus 11
80809 Munich, Germany
Phone: +49 89 289 24955
E-mail: gunther.schauberger(at)tum.de
Text: Bastian Daneyko
Photos/Graphics: Private