Title: Economics of diabetes prevention and care: Using microsimulation and prediction modelling to support evidence-based decision making in health policy
Funding Body: German Center for Diabetes Research / German Ministry of Education and Research
Funding Period: 2023-2025
Partners: Helmholtz Munich
Objectives:
The overall goal of the project is to improve the evidence on the economic and public health impact of implementing diabetes prevention strategies in Germany. Goal 1 is to analyze the short and long-term cost-effectiveness of targeted and population-based interventions to prevent and treat diabetes mellitus. Goal 2 to advance prediction models for the onset of diabetes complications using real world claims data
Background:
Robust evidence on the health economic impact of diabetes prevention strategies is needed to prioritize interventions with the biggest value. Generating this evidence is challenging. It requires to combine clinical, epidemiological and socio-economic data in mathematical simulation models, which then can be used to project the long-term health and economic effects of the interventions. Furthermore, to make precision prevention approaches cost-effective, low-cost scalable strategies of identifying high-risk patients are needed. Using routine data and modern machine learning methods could be the future of targeting interventions, but this approach is largely unexplored territory.
Methods
We will i) chose internationally established public health and diabetes micro-simulation models, ii) parameterize them with best available epidemiological and economic data and iii) simulate the long-term health and economic impact of prioritized interventions and policies for preventing diabetes.
We will i) predict diabetes complications through state of the art machine learning approaches to claims data of n~400,000 patients with type 2 diabetes, and ii) explore the potential of extending the developed algorithms to data source that comprises claims and phenotypic information of patients with type 2 diabetes.
Impact
The project will add valuable evidence on the health and economic impact of selected interventions and health policies and will provide new avenues for scalable patient selection for precision prevention in routine care settings.
Contact: Dr. Anna-Janina Stephan
